MAY 7, 2020
SOMETHING SOMEONE ONCE SAID
"To live is to keep moving." - Jery Seinfeld
*We at Evergreen Gavekal would like to wish you all good health and positive thoughts during these crazy times. We hope you and your loved ones are well.*
The month of April in the financial markets was actually historically strong. That’s because the month of March was one of the worst in Wall Street’s storied history. As COVID-19 continued to wreak devastating havoc around the globe, April saw volatility decline from extreme levels. Stock markets in developed countries outperformed emerging markets and growth stocks outperformed value. The S&P 500 returned 12.8% and has retraced almost 60% of its previous decline. Because of the massive stimulus injected into the global economy by the Fed and central banks, fixed income markets also rallied. But despite all of this progress, the markets are still on shaky footing because of the reality we’re all faced with: an uncertain future.
In Europe, the number of Coronavirus cases is on the decline and some countries are doing some strategery around re-opening their economies. Germany has already pumped the brakes on some of their restrictions and looks like it’ll be one of the first to kick back into gear. But when the dust settles on 2020, the International Monetary Fund is estimating Europe’s GDP will be down 7% from a year ago. Considering our European friends contribute 22% of the global economy, that’s kind of a big deal.
Back in the US, our economy has shrunk at an annualized pace of 4.8% in the first quarter of 2020 and is taking on water like the Titanic. The number of American humans submitting jobless claims is off the charts, soaring to 30 million over the last six weeks. This wildly high level of unemployment has left many wondering how many of these layoffs are temporary. The answer to this question will be crucial for the outlook of the US economy. The Federal Reserve’s response to curb economic decay has been swift and dramatic. It’s buying both high-yield and corporate bonds to help keep the sinking ship afloat. Here’s hoping we have better luck than Leo did in those icy waters.
It’s no secret that we’re in unprecedented times and this global crisis doesn’t appear to be going away until we have a reliable vaccine. While really smart people like Bill Gates are working on this solution, it takes time (some say months, some say a year). Anyone hoping to jump in and capitalize on the market downturn should do so knowing there’s likely to be a sh%tload of volatility in the coming months.
Be safe. Be smart. Be well.
TOP PERFORMING S&P STOCKS (YEAR-TO-DATE)
AS OF 5/6
1) REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS +52.97%
2) NEWMONT CORP +49.80%
3) NORTIN LIFELOCK INC +44.27%
4) ARCONIC CORP +37.28%
5) CLOROX COMPANY +34.17%
TRENDING ON TWITTER TODAY
Microsoft had an online reveal party today to show the world what games on itsupcoming console will look like. From the sound of things, it didn't go so hot and people on Twitter aren't too impressed.
People are flocking to Twitter to pray for the world as it grapples with the fallout of Covid-19. Prayers up.
The right-wing conspiracy theorist and Trump activist has made the rather surprising career pivot to become a fitness guru. His online ads promoting his services for *cough* $500 are riddled with typos. As you can imagine, Twitter's having some fun with it.
On February 23rd, the 25 year-old, Ahmaud Arbery was gunned down while jogging in a Georgia neighborhood by a man and his son because Arbery looked like a suspect in some recent burglaries. As if sh*t isn't bad enough...Ugh.
It appears the Trump campaign is dubbing its 2020 presidential campaign after the famed Star Wars space station. Politics aside, naming a US presidential campaign after a planet-destroying battle station in the middle of a global pandemic is about is tone deaf as watching Tiger King on your phone while touring Vatican City. Ugh again.
FINANCIAL ARTICLES WE LOVE
Did you know that 85% of people hate their jobs? The founder of Invincible Career writes that maybe this is a good time to reconsider your work. Or, if you’re happy with what you do but want to learn how to navigate asking for a raise or getting promoted, he’s got some advice for you.
Whether you’re looking for a guide to help create good content or weave a blanket to use during quarantine, this manifesto is North Star for making something worth making. It’s also chock full of a bunch of notions that can be applied to life in general.
Let’s be honest: this article had us at “Bill Murray”.
How many hearts does an octopus have?
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SHOWS WE LIKE (SINCE WE WON'T BE DINING OUT ANYTIME SOON)
The Plot Against America (HBO)
ONE GOOD THING
As we all grapple with a new—and often maddening—normal, it’s easy to wonder “Am I doing enough”? One thing that is both true and comforting is the notion that it’s okay to feel like sh#t and other emotions (anxiety, stress, sad, etc). These are uncertain times and we should all have the license to feel all the feels. After all, psychologists have pointed out that it’s in our DNA to feel a wide range of emotions during times of crisis. These situations threaten us and trigger our fight or flight response, oscillating our feelings across the emotional spectrum. In this edition of One good thing, blogger Cole Shafer expands on this idea that surviving is more than enough. So, sit back, take a deep breath, and forgive yourself for binging Love is Blind in one sitting and then crying about it.
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TRIVIA ANSWER: 3. Our eight tentacled friends of the deep ocean have one heart that pumps blood around the body and two other ones that pump blood to the gills. This unusual composition of cardiac hardware is thought to be due to the unusual makeup of their blood. It’s less efficient than human blood and the extra hearts helps offset this by pumping blood at a higher pressure.
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